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Former NJ State Senator discounts on redistricting,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
A former New Jersey State Senator takes little cognizance of the latest report showing how far apart the two delegations of the Legislative Apportionment Commission are, and says that the reporting ignores the reality of the population shift.
Former Senator Richard J. LaRossa, fouder of The National Term Limits Coalition, commented last night on this report by Matt Friedman of the Statehouse Bureau,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], based apparently on four separate leaks that Friedman had received of the Republican and Democratic plans for a new district map. The Apportionment Commission must decide on a new map by April 3, about one week before the primary filing deadline
Friedman stated on Sunday that the Republicans submitted a plan that would pit multiple Democratic incumbents against one another in primaries. (One Democrat left out of that bloodbath: Senator Brian Stack of Union City,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], who lately has expressed fulsome praise of Governor Chris Christie.)
Friedman talks a lot about the Republicans' plans to force Democrats to run against each other, but says little or nothing about the Democrats doing the same thing. And do you really believe that they won't?
LaRossa also agreed with Patrick Murray, whom Friedman described as puzzled by the Republican map, given Tiebreaker Alan Rosenthal's expressed preference for districts that ensure "continuity of representation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," meaning that as few incubments as possible find their towns switched to another district, and that all incumbents face as many of the same voters as they have been facing for the last ten years.
But LaRossa also raised an issue that Friedman failed to address: the population shift. Quite simply,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], too many districts in South Jersey have to shrink, and too many districts in North Jersey have to grow,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], in order to meet the stringent criteria that Rosenthal has set: that no district deviate in population by more than five percent from the ideal mean, or one-fortieth of the total population of New Jersey. This year, that mean is "just under 220,000 residents."
Given those tight margins, some primary fights between incumbents are almost inevitable in North Jersey, but not in South Jersey, which will gain districts,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], LaRossa said.
Nevertheless LaRossa identified one,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and only one, district likely to be at all competitive: the 14th. That is already the most competitive district in New Jersey, and will remain that way.
LaRossa also reiterated his earlier statement that the new map is "a done deal" for the Democrats, and suggested that all the leaks that Friedman received were just so much noise. He pointed to this statement,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which remains on the home page of the Division of Elections:
Please be advised that the 2011 redistricting of the State Legislative Districts have not been finalized. If you file your nomination petition prior to the lines being finalized, it will be your responsibility to review, and if necessary amend, your nomination petition to ensure that you have a minimum of 100 voter signatures in the applicable legislative district on or before the April 11,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 2011 filing deadline.
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